Snippets about: Decision Making
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The Ideal Decision Group - A Truthseeking Pod
The ideal decision group for debiasing and improving choices has the following traits:
- A commitment to rewarding and encouraging truthseeking, objectivity and openness
- Accountability - members must know they'll have to explain their choices to the group
- Diversity of perspectives to combat groupthink and confirmation bias
The group can't just be an echo chamber. There must be a culture of rewarding dissent, considering alternatives, and constantly asking how members might be wrong or biased. If you can find even 2-3 other people who share this ethos, you'll be far ahead of most decision makers.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
The Golden Circle - A Naturally Occurring Pattern
The Golden Circle is a naturally occurring pattern grounded in the biology of human decision making. The Golden Circle contains three layers:
- The outside layer is "What" - Every organization knows WHAT they do, the products they sell or services they offer.
- The middle layer is "How" - Some organizations know HOW they do what they do - their unique differentiators, proprietary process or value proposition.
- The innermost layer is "Why" - Very few organizations can clearly articulate WHY they do what they do. WHY is a purpose, cause or belief. It provides a clear answer to: Why do you get out of bed in the morning? Why should anyone care?
Most organizations communicate from the outside-in, telling people WHAT they do, HOW they are better, then expecting a behavior like a purchase. But inspired organizations start with WHY at the center, then flow outward to HOW and WHAT. When WHY is clearly communicated, WHAT you do serves as tangible proof of that belief.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Start with Why
Author: Simon Sinek
The Myth Of Permanence
When making long-term decisions, be wary of the assumption that your current preferences are permanent. Ask yourself "How might my tastes change over time?"
- That sports car may be your dream ride now, but will you feel the same when you have kids?
- That fixer-upper house may seem charming now, but will you still want to spend weekends on renovations in five years?
- That thrilling but unstable relationship may be exciting now, but will you still prefer drama over security when you're older?
Consciously imagine how your future self may differ from your current self. Make choices that account for gradual change, not just permanent extension of the present.
Section: 4, Chapter: 7
Book: Stumbling on Happiness
Author: Daniel Gilbert
The Perils of Over-Analysis: Millennium Challenge '02
Gladwell recounts the story of Millennium Challenge '02, a massive military war game conducted by the U.S. military. The exercise pitted a high-tech Blue Team (representing the U.S.) against a low-tech Red Team led by retired Marine Corps general Paul Van Riper.
Despite Blue Team's technological superiority and extensive planning, Van Riper's Red Team managed to outmaneuver them by using unconventional tactics and quick, adaptive decision-making. Van Riper's approach:
- Relied on decentralized command structure
- Encouraged rapid, intuitive decision-making
- Avoided over-analysis and information overload
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Doing the Right Thing
"Efficiency Is Doing Things Right; Effectiveness Is Doing the Right Thing"
"If you have enough foresight to know with certainty what the 'right thing' is in advance, then efficiency is an apt proxy for effectiveness. In the wayward swirl, however, the correlation between efficiency and effectiveness breaks down. The Task Force had built systems that were very good at doing things right, but too inflexible to do the right thing."
Section: 1, Chapter: 7
Book: Team of Teams
Author: Stanley McChrystal
The Limbic Brain - The Powerful "Feeling" Part Of Our Brain
The limbic brain is the middle section of our brain responsible for all our feelings, like trust and loyalty. It's also responsible for all human behavior and decision making. However, the limbic brain has no capacity for language.
When people make decisions, they rely on their limbic brain much more than the rational neo-cortex. That's why we struggle to put our feelings into words - the part of the brain that controls language is separate from the part that controls behavior.
So when a company communicates from the outside-in, starting with WHAT, they appeal only to the rational neo-cortex. But when a company starts with WHY, they talk directly to the limbic brain that controls decision making. Even if a person can't put their feelings into words, they will still "feel" right about a decision that aligns with their WHY.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Start with Why
Author: Simon Sinek
The Importance Of Expressing Uncertainty
One habit that aids truthseeking discussions, both in groups and one-on-one, is expressing uncertainty. Rather than stating opinions as facts, couch them in probabilistic terms. Say things like "I think there's a 60% chance that..." or "I'm pretty sure that X is the case, but I'm open to other views." Expressing uncertainty:
- Acknowledges that reality is complex and our knowledge is limited
- Makes people more willing to share dissenting opinions
- Sets the stage for you to change your mind gracefully if better evidence emerges
Expressing certainty, on the other hand, cuts off discussion and makes you look foolish if you're wrong. It's a lazy way to "win" arguments.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
The Gittins Index: Optimizing The Slot Machine Of Life
What's the optimal balance between exploring new options and exploiting known ones? Mathematician John Gittins solved this in the 1970s with the Gittins Index.
The Gittins Index assigns each option a score based on its observed results so far AND the uncertainty remaining in that option. Unknown options get an "uncertainty bonus" that makes them more attractive to try.
For example, suppose you have two slot machines, one that paid off 4/10 times, and a new machine you've never tried. The Gittins Index will recommend the new machine, because the uncertainty bonus outweighs the 40% payoff of the known machine. It COULD be much better.
Once you've tried an option enough times, the uncertainty bonus dwindles and its Gittins Index matches its observed performance. At that point you "retire" an option that underperforms.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Recruiting Others To Debias Us
Ideally, we would just be able to recognize and overcome biases like self-serving bias through sheer force of will. But these patterns of thinking are so ingrained that individual willpower is rarely enough to change them. A better solution is to recruit others to help us see our blind spots.
Surround yourself with people who are on a "truthseeking" mission and aren't afraid to challenge you if your fielding of outcomes seems biased. Ideally, gather a group with diverse perspectives who are all committed to being open-minded, giving credit where due, and exploring alternative interpretations of events. Use them to vet your decision-making process, not just focus on outcomes.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Better Decision Making Is A Learned Skill
One of the key themes of Chapter 4 is that making better, less biased decisions is a learnable skill, not an innate ability. You can create habits and routines that will gradually improve your "batting average" on choices, even if it feels uncomfortable and unnatural at first.
Part of developing this skill is learning strategies for anticipating common decision traps, so you can spot them ahead of time and circumvent them. Groups can play a huge role by helping you catch flaws in your process in a timely way. Don't expect perfection, just aim to get a little more rational and objective over time. Those gains will compound.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
We Imagine Salient Details And Neglect Context
When imagining a potential future event, like a job change or relationship, our brains tend to focus heavily on the most salient details (exciting projects at the new job, romantic dates with the new partner) while neglecting the mundane details and broader life context (boring meetings at the new job, arguments with the new partner).
To make better decisions, try to imagine the full context of the potential event. Don't just focus on the most exciting highlights in isolation. Mentally simulate how it will interact with other parts of your daily life. Consciously fill in details beyond the most salient ones. The extra mental work can pay off with a more realistic imagined experience to inform your choices.
Section: 3, Chapter: 4
Book: Stumbling on Happiness
Author: Daniel Gilbert
Simple, Complicated And Complex Problems Require Different Approaches
Gawande explains a helpful framework developed by professors Brenda Zimmerman and Sholom Glouberman that defines three types of problems:
- Simple problems like baking a cake from a box mix. These can be solved by following a straightforward, standard recipe. Success is almost guaranteed if you precisely follow the instructions. No special expertise is required and results are easily replicated.
- Complicated problems like sending a rocket to the moon. These consist of many simple problems that must be coordinated correctly. They require teams of experts in different domains and precise timing. Unanticipated difficulties commonly arise. But with enough planning, a complicated problem can usually be solved reliably.
- Complex problems like raising a child. A complex problem involves many factors that interact with each other in unpredictable, ever-changing ways. What works in one case often doesn't apply to the next. Deep expertise helps but only to a limited extent, because each situation is unique and outcomes are uncertain.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
"Wanna Bet?" On Your Beliefs
Annie Duke introduces the powerful question "Wanna bet?" as a way to test the strength of your beliefs. When someone challenges you with a bet, it forces you to consider:
- Why do I believe this?
- How much information do I have to support it?
- Under what circumstances might my belief not be true?
"Wanna bet?" triggers you to vet your beliefs and express your level of confidence in them accurately, rather than just assuming they are 100% true. This is what poker players and good decision makers do constantly. Duke argues we should all adopt this betting framework for our beliefs and predictions.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
The Craftsman Approach To Tool Selection
The Craftsman Approach to tool selection is summed up as: Identify the core factors that determine success and happiness in your professional and personal life. Adopt a tool only if its positive impacts on these factors substantially outweigh its negative impacts. This approach is inspired by the way craftsmen traditionally viewed their tools, carefully weighing the positives and negatives of each.
- Identify the main high-level goals in both your professional and personal life.
- List the 2-3 most important activities that help you satisfy each goal.
- Consider the network tools you currently use and ask whether they have a substantially positive, negative, or little impact on your regular and successful participation in these activities.
- Keep using the tool only if the benefits substantially outweigh the negatives. Stick to the core activities that connect most with your key goals when evaluating.
Section: 2, Chapter: 3
Book: Deep Work
Author: Cal Newport
The Danger of Explaining Our Instincts
Gladwell warns about the dangers of trying to explain or rationalize our instinctive decisions. He cites several studies showing that when people are forced to explain their choices, they often make worse decisions or become less consistent in their preferences. This is because many of our instinctive judgments come from our adaptive unconscious, which operates outside our awareness and can't always be easily articulated.
- Trust your instincts, especially in areas where you have expertise
- Be wary of overanalyzing decisions that are best made quickly
- Recognize that you may not always be able to explain why you feel a certain way about something
- In some situations, going with your gut feeling may lead to better outcomes than extensive deliberation
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
The Perils of Too Much Information
Gladwell presents the intriguing case of Cook County Hospital's approach to diagnosing heart attacks. The hospital adopted a simple algorithm developed by cardiologist Lee Goldman, which used just four factors to determine if a patient was having a heart attack. This method proved more accurate than the traditional approach of considering a wide range of factors and conducting numerous tests.
This example illustrates a counterintuitive principle: sometimes, less information leads to better decisions. By focusing on just a few key indicators, doctors were able to make faster and more accurate diagnoses. Gladwell argues that this principle applies beyond medicine - in many situations, an excess of information can cloud our judgment and lead to poorer decisions.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
How To Think About Reversion To The Mean
Mauboussin offers practical advice on how to use the concept of reversion to the mean to make better predictions and decisions:
- Reversion to the mean is a statistical reality in any system where two measures are imperfectly correlated. Extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more average outcomes.
- The key to using reversion to the mean is to know where the mean is. In other words, you need a sense of the underlying base rate or long-term average. Err on the side of the mean.
- The more extreme the initial outcome and the further it is from the mean, the more you should expect it to revert.
Section: 1, Chapter: 10
Book: The Success Equation
Author: Michael Mauboussin
"Feel the Fear and Do It Anyway"
Fear is the root of so many barriers for women. Fear of not being liked, of making the wrong choice, of drawing negative attention, of overreaching, of being judged. To combat this fear, practice identifying it and moving forward anyway:
- Ask yourself "What would I do if I wasn't afraid?" Then find a way to do it.
- When you feel nervous about contributing in a meeting, push yourself to speak up early.
- When you're afraid to take on a challenging assignment, imagine yourself rising to the occasion. Ignoring fear doesn't make it go away, but facing it head on can lessen its power over your choices.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Lean In
Author: Sheryl Sandberg
Inverted U-Curves In Wealth, Parenting and Class Size
Many advantages and disadvantages actually operate on an inverted U-curve:
- Money makes parenting easier up to a point, after which it actually makes it harder again as the parent struggles to say no or set limits
- Smaller class sizes are better up to a point, then actually become worse again if they get too small, as students feel self-conscious and teachers lower standards
The problem is we often fail to see how certain seeming advantages can cross the curve and turn into disadvantages. Having more resources is not always optimal.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: David and Goliath
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Caroline Sacks Chooses Between an Elite and Accessible College
Caroline Sacks, a gifted student passionate about science, had to choose between going to Brown University or University of Maryland. Despite loving science, Caroline struggled in Brown's demanding science program, getting discouraged and switching majors.
In going to Brown, Caroline fell victim to a common error - what Gladwell calls "elite institution cognitive disorder." In choosing the more elite school, she actually put herself at a disadvantage by surrounding herself with more competitive peers and making herself feel inadequate. She would have likely had a more successful science career if she went to Maryland.
This illustrates the concept of "relative deprivation" - how we compare ourselves to our immediate peers. Our sense of self-worth and motivation depends on these local comparisons, not our global ranking.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: David and Goliath
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
"I'm Not Sure": Using Uncertainty To Our Advantage
One of the key insights is that we should get more comfortable saying "I'm not sure" and acknowledging uncertainty. Poker players know that they can never be fully certain if their decision is right, due to incomplete information. They focus on making the best decision possible given what they know. We should do the same in life - make the best choices we can while accepting that we don't know everything. Don't be afraid to express uncertainty, as it makes you more credible. Redefine "wrong" to mean the decision-making process was flawed, not that the outcome was bad due to factors beyond your control.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
The "Tyranny of the Should"
Many twentysomethings get trapped by "the tyranny of the should" - narrow, prescribed visions of who they ought to be, based on family expectations or cultural scripts. Signs you are stuck in the "tyranny of the should":
- Your goals come from what others expect of you (parents, friends, society) not your own desires
- You have a rigid, idealized vision of what success looks like, and no flexibility for other good options
- You are putting off making choices because you worry they won't measure up to how things "should" be
- You feel you have to have it all now - the dream job, the soulmate, the perfect life - and can't move forward until everything lines up
- The solution is to shift focus from the outward "should" to your inner wants and needs.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: The Defining Decade
Author: Meg Jay
The Unconscious Reasons Behind Our Choices And Behaviors
Chapter 7 delves into how unconscious factors shape our decision-making and behaviors, often without our awareness. We may think we are making rational choices, but studies show unconscious biases, environmental cues, and social influences have a powerful sway.
For example, priming people with words related to the elderly causes them to walk more slowly afterwards. Holding a warm cup of coffee leads people to judge others as having a "warmer" personality. Stereotypes about gender, race, age, and other social categories unconsciously affect our perceptions and behaviors, even among those who consciously reject such stereotypes.
Section: 2, Chapter: 7
Book: Subliminal
Author: Leonard Mlodinow
The Power Of Dissent - Encouraging Disagreement To Get To Truth
Chapter 5 explores how great decision-making groups don't just tolerate dissent, they actively encourage it. Duke cites the example of Alfred P. Sloan, the legendary CEO of General Motors. When all his executives agreed on a decision, Sloan said "I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about." He knew that the pursuit of truth required constantly stress-testing ideas and considering alternatives. Dissent isn't disloyal, it's necessary for getting to the best answer.
Section: 1, Chapter: 5
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Deciding What To Keep
When deciding what to keep and what to discard, whether it's for your closet, your bookshelf, or your computer's memory, consider two factors:
- Frequency: How often is this item used or accessed? Things used most often should be kept close at hand. This is why your computer's RAM is faster than its hard disk.
- Recency: When was this item last used? Items used more recently are more likely to be used again soon. So the most recently used items should also be kept easily accessible.
Many caching algorithms, like Least Recently Used (LRU), primarily consider recency. But the optimal approach, as used by the human brain, balances both frequency and recency.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Decisions Based On False Assumptions Can Lead Us Astray
Many of the decisions and assumptions we make are based on incomplete or false information. Our behavior is affected by our assumptions, even when based on incomplete information. This can lead entire companies and organizations to make poor decisions, by starting with flawed assumptions. The key is to understand the true reasons behind why we do what we do.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Start with Why
Author: Simon Sinek
The Skeptic And The Optimist
Philip Tetlock considers himself an "optimistic skeptic" when it comes to forecasting. The skeptical side recognizes the huge challenges of predicting the future in a complex, nonlinear world. Even small unpredictable events, like the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit vendor, can have cascading consequences no one foresaw, like the Arab Spring uprisings.
However, the optimistic side believes foresight is possible, to some degree, in some circumstances. We make mundane forecasts constantly in everyday life. Sophisticated forecasts underpin things like insurance and inventory management. The key is to figure out what makes forecasts more or less accurate, by gathering many forecasts, measuring accuracy, and rigorously analyzing results. This is rarely done today - but it can be.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Superforecasting
Author: Philip Tetlock
Overcoming Our Biases With Bayesian Thinking
Silver advocates for a Bayesian approach to prediction and belief-formation. Bayes's theorem states that we should constantly update our probability estimates based on new information, weighing it against our prior assumptions. Some key takeaways:
- Explicitly quantify how probable you think something is before looking at new evidence. This prevents the common error of assigning far too much weight to a small amount of new data.
- Think probabilistically, not in binary terms. Assign levels of confidence to your beliefs rather than 100% certainty or 0% impossibility.
- Be willing to change your mind incrementally based on new information. Don't cling stubbornly to prior beliefs in the face of mounting contradictory evidence.
- Aim to steadily get closer to the truth rather than achieving perfection or claiming to have absolute knowledge. All knowledge is uncertain and subject to revision.
Section: 1, Chapter: 8
Book: The Signal and the Noise
Author: Nate Silver
The 37% Rule: When To Stop Looking And Commit
The 37% Rule provides guidance on the optimal time to stop searching and commit to a particular choice, whether you're looking for an apartment, hiring an employee, or finding a spouse. In short, look at your first 37% of options to establish a baseline, then commit to anything after that point which beats the best you've seen so far.
To be precise, the optimal proportion to look at before switching to "leap mode" is 1/e, or about 37%. So if you're searching for an apartment and have 30 days to do it, spend the first 11 days (37% of 30) exploring options, then on day 12 pick the next place that tops your current best.
This algorithm offers the best chance of finding the single best option, though it will still fail a majority of the time. But it shows the power of establishing a "good enough" baseline before jumping on something that exceeds it.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
We Confabulate Reasons For Our Feelings, Choices And Beliefs
Be skeptical of the quick explanations your mind generates for your emotions, behaviors and judgments. Chances are your conscious reasons are a confabulated narrative rather than true introspection. This doesn't mean your intuitions are necessarily wrong, just that your conscious justifications for them are suspect.
Try to notice the subtle cues, contexts and contingencies that may be unconsciously swaying you. Cultivating mindfulness of your moment-to-moment experiences can yield wiser insights than simply assuming your rationalized reasons are the full story.
Section: 2, Chapter: 9
Book: Subliminal
Author: Leonard Mlodinow
"We Are All Forecasters"
"We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecasts."
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Superforecasting
Author: Philip Tetlock
Saying No Gracefully Doesn't Have To Mean Saying The Word No
We can say no without actually uttering the word:
- "I am flattered that you thought of me but I'm afraid I don't have the bandwidth."
- "I would love to but I'm overcommitted at the moment."
- "Your project sounds wonderful. I would not be able to do it justice given my current commitments."
- "I am in the middle of something that I need to focus on, so I am afraid I will have to pass on this."
- "Let me check my calendar and get back to you." Saying no gracefully allows us to focus on our essential intent without damaging relationships.
Section: 3, Chapter: 11
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
SOPs Are The Manifestation Of Rules And The Need To Follow Them
"Like SOPs, checklists are the manifestation of rules and the need to follow them. They are there to ensure reliability and reduce error. The alternative is that people make decisions based on their own observations. While switching from a rule to a decision may improve the quality of that particular action, it may also create problems and uncertainty for other people."
Section: 2, Chapter: 6
Book: Power and Prediction
Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
Factfulness In Practice - Having A Calm, Fact-Based Worldview
Rosling reflects on how practicing Factfulness - having a worldview based on facts rather than unconscious instincts - has benefited his life and work:
- Factfulness reduces stress by helping us keep threats in perspective. It's still important to be aware of real dangers but without getting panicked by unlikely or exaggerated fears.
- Factfulness highlights opportunities by showing how the world is changing. Businesses can find growing markets, nonprofits can identify solvable problems.
- Factfulness enables focusing on what's most important by filtering out noise and hysteria. Activists and policymakers can prioritize based on data. In an increasingly complex and uncertain world, Factfulness provides clarity and hope - a needed antidote to paralyzing pessimism and tribalism. By seeing how the world is improving, we can work, step-by-step, towards making it even better.
Section: 1, Chapter: 11
Book: Factfulness
Author: Hans Rosling
"Outcomes Don't Tell Us What's Our Fault And What Isn't"
"Outcomes don't tell us what's our fault and what isn't, what we should take credit for and what we shouldn't. Outcomes are rarely the result of our decision quality alone or chance alone, and outcome quality is not a perfect indicator of the influence of luck or skill. When it comes to fielding outcomes, we tend to focus on the quality of the outcome as the deciding factor between luck and skill."
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Discerning The Vital Few From The Trivial Many
- Explore and evaluate a broad set of options before committing.
- Eliminate the nonessentials to make execution of the vital things almost effortless.
- It's not about just getting things done, but getting the right things done.
- Always ask "Is this the very most important thing I should be doing with my time and resources right now?"
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
How To Pick A Winner Fairly
Imagine you need to decide which employee to promote or which vendor to source from. You want to be scrupulously fair, but you're concerned that subconscious biases might creep in. Randomness offers an unexpected solution. Rather than agonizing to perfectly weigh every factor, you can:
- Set a clear quality bar for eligibility. Decide what minimum standards candidates must meet to be considered qualified.
- Make a binary yes/no decision on each candidate. No rankings, no attempt to suss out who's better by how much. Just "above the bar" or not.
- Among all candidates who clear the bar, choose one at random.
This process, while not perfect, removes many common flaws and biases from selection:
- Leniency bias (grading too easily) gets blunted because you're working off clear standards, not gut feeling
- Recency bias (overweighting latest information) is thwarted, since you decide on each candidate one at a time rather than comparing
- Implicit biases get less room to operate since all "above the bar" options are treated as equal
Randomness becomes a guarantor of equity rather than a bug.
Section: 1, Chapter: 9
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Decisions Are Progress, So Make Lots Of Them
When you put off decisions, they pile up. Unmade decisions accumulate and complicate each other, creating stress and stagnation. The solution is to decide early and often, even when information is incomplete.
Don't treat decisions as permanent. Make the best call you can now with the information you have. You can revisit it later if things change. The important thing is not to sacrifice momentum. Keeping the decision train rolling, even if imperfectly, maintains your pace and morale.
Section: 1, Chapter: 7
Book: Rework
Author: Jason Fried, David Heinemeier Hansson
Avoidable Failures Are Common Across Fields
"Avoidable failures are common and persistent, not to mention demoralizing and frustrating, across many fields—from medicine to finance, business to government. And the reason is increasingly evident: the volume and complexity of what we know has exceeded our individual ability to deliver its benefits correctly, safely, or reliably. Knowledge has both saved us and burdened us."
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Adapt With Root Cause Analysis
The Five Whys is a technique for getting to the root cause when something goes wrong. By asking "why" five times, you can peel back layers to find the human problem at the source. For example:
- Why aren't customers using our new feature? Because they can't find it.
- Why can't they find it? It's only accessible from an obscure screen.
- Why is it only accessible there? Because the senior designer thought it would be better.
- Why did he think that? He wasn't properly briefed on the goals.
- Why wasn't he briefed? Because the PM was busy with other features.
Five Whys helps you build an adaptive organization that fixes processes, not just symptoms.
Section: 3, Chapter: 11
Book: The Lean Startup
Author: Eric Ries
The Power of Structured Spontaneity
In Chapter 4, Gladwell explores how structure and rules can paradoxically enhance spontaneity and quick decision-making. He uses the example of improvisational comedy and military strategy to illustrate this point.
- Improvisation relies on a set of underlying rules that guide spontaneous creation
- These rules provide a framework that allows for quick, creative responses
- Similar principles apply in other high-pressure, fast-paced environments like emergency rooms and battlefields
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
The Warren Harding Error: The Dark Side of Thin-Slicing
Gladwell introduces the concept of the "Warren Harding Error," named after the U.S. president who was elected largely based on his appearance rather than his qualifications. This chapter explores how our rapid judgments can sometimes lead us astray, particularly when we allow superficial traits to override more relevant information.
Warren Harding was elected president largely because he "looked presidential". Physical appearance, height, and other irrelevant factors often play a disproportionate role in how we judge others. These snap judgments can have serious consequences in areas like hiring, promotions, and elections
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Mertonian Norms For Truthseeking Groups
To create a truthseeking culture, Duke recommends following the Mertonian norms developed by sociologist Robert Merton:
- Communism (data belongs to the group, not individuals)
- Universalism (evaluate ideas based on merit, not source)
- Disinterestedness (be willing to accept outcomes that go against your preferred position)
- Organized Skepticism (discussion is good, but agree to be bound by logic/evidence)
These principles help overcome biases like confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and groupthink that can derail group decision making. They create an environment where the best ideas can surface and win out.
Section: 1, Chapter: 5
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Imagine Failure To Prevent It From Happening
Once you clearly understand the problem you are trying to solve, the next step is to generate potential solutions. A critical part of this process is considering what could go wrong with each possible approach.
The author recommends conducting a "premortem" - vividly imagining the solution failing in the future, then working backwards to identify all the ways that failure could occur. This exercise uncovers pitfalls and blindspots that may not be apparent when you are focused solely on success.
It's not about being pessimistic, but thoroughly prepared. Envisioning failure allows you to stress-test your strategies and put safeguards in place to prevent problems.
Section: 4, Chapter: 2
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
Simple Rules Often Outperform Experts
In many situations, simple statistical algorithms or formulas can outperform the judgments of experts, especially in environments where predictability is low. This is because algorithms are more consistent and less susceptible to biases than human judgment. They can also detect and utilize weak predictive cues that humans often overlook.
Section: 3, Chapter: 21
Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author: Daniel Kahneman
The Importance of Creating "Behavioral Outs"
Gladwell discusses strategies for preventing mind-reading failures in high-stakes situations, focusing on the concept of "behavioral outs" - tactics that create space and time for more accurate assessment of a situation.
- In potentially confrontational situations, slow down the pace of interactions
- Create physical distance to reduce perceived threat and allow for better observation
- Use verbal techniques to buy time and gather more information
- Train for high-stress scenarios to improve performance under pressure
- Develop protocols that force a pause before escalating to the use of force
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Thinking From a Baseline
“In a complex world where people can be atypical in an infinite number of ways, there is great value in discovering the baseline. And knowing what happens on average is a good place to start. By so doing, we insulate ourselves from the tendency to build our thinking - our daily decisions, our laws, our governance - on exceptions and anomalies rather than on reality.”
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Super Freakonomics
Author: Steven D. Levitt , Stephen J. Dubner
Homogeneity Breeds Collective Blindness
Homogenous groups, even when composed of smart individuals, often become collectively blind. They tend to share the same assumptions and blindspots. Homophily, the tendency of like to associate with like, acts as an invisible force pulling groups towards conformity of thought. Diverse groups that contain different perspectives are less likely to fall prey to collective blindness.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Rebel Ideas
Author: Matthew Syed
Decide, Don't Slide
Every relationship hits milestones where you must choose whether to move forward or not: becoming exclusive, moving in together, getting engaged, etc. But many couples "slide" into these transitions without deliberate discussion or purposeful choice.
Sliding makes you more likely to get into situations you're not fully prepared for. Deciding means you soberly evaluate your readiness and talk through expectations upfront. Studies show couples who "decide" are more satisfied and less likely to divorce than those who slide.
Treat your relationship like an investment that requires proactive care, not a purchase you just need to maintain. At every juncture, large or small, ask yourself the tough questions about what you really want.
Section: 3, Chapter: 13
Book: How to Not Die Alone
Author: Logan Ury
Reporting Live from Tomorrow
Since imagination and memory are such flawed guides to how you'll feel in future situations, a more reliable approach is to find someone similar to you who is currently in the situation you're contemplating, and ask them how they feel.
- If considering a move to a new city, ask someone who recently made the same move how it's going.
- If debating graduate school, interview current students about their experiences.
- If wondering if you're ready for parenthood, spend time with friends who are new parents.
Surrogates who are actively experiencing what you're imagining have more accurate insight into its emotional impact. They aren't clouded by imaginative mispredictions. While you can never know exactly how you'll react, relying on a surrogate's experience is better than relying on your own mental simulations.
Section: 6, Chapter: 11
Book: Stumbling on Happiness
Author: Daniel Gilbert
Social Pressures Encourage Conformity
The social default stems from our biological drive to belong to the group and not risk being ostracized. While conforming had survival value in prehistoric times, it often leads to poor judgment today.
To combat this tendency, recognize that:
- It's easy to overestimate your willingness to go against the grain. Standing apart from the crowd is uncomfortable.
- Social rewards are felt immediately, while benefits of diverging are delayed. Steel yourself to weather short-term social friction.
- You can respect someone's opinion without agreeing with them. Have the courage to thoughtfully dissent.
Remember, if you do what everyone else does, you'll get the same results as everyone else. Thinking for yourself is key to extraordinary outcomes.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
Put Yourself in the Position of Pain
When designing your "machine," put yourself in the "position of pain" for a bit - get into the flow of work and feel the frustrations of operating within the design. Where are the tensions, the "pains"? Experiencing this directly will help you improve the design. A few other design principles:
- Think of the design like a "movie script," with different people and processes interacting through time. Visualize how things should flow.
- Think about both the big picture and the granular details.
- Beware of unintended second- and third-order consequences. New designs often solve one problem but cause others.
Section: 3, Chapter: 13
Book: Principles
Author: Ray Dalio
Question Your Categories To Avoid Overgeneralizing
To control the generalization instinct, Rosling recommends questioning your categories:
- Look for differences within groups. Consider how your categories could be split into smaller, more precise subcategories.
- Look for similarities across groups. Consider if the supposed differences between your groups are really that significant.
- Look for differences across groups. Don't assume what is true for one group is true for another.
- Beware of "the majority." Majority just means more than half. Ask if it's 51% or 99%. The two situations are very different.
- Beware of vivid examples. Shocking stories shape our impressions but are often the exception, not the rule.
- Assume people are not idiots. If something looks strange, don't just condemn it. Ask yourself, how could this be rational from another perspective?
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Factfulness
Author: Hans Rosling
The Illusion of Inevitability
When reflecting on a choice you made in the past, notice the tendency to assume the outcome was inevitable, and to misremember your past self as feeling more confident about the choice than you actually did.
- If a job change worked out well, you'll remember "just knowing" it was the right move, even if you were full of doubt at the time.
- If a relationship soured, you'll misremember the red flags as glaringly obvious from the start, even if you barely noticed them then.
- If a project succeeded, you'll recall being sure it was destined for greatness, even if you had major misgivings.
Recognize that your current knowledge of how things turned out is coloring your memories of how you thought and felt beforehand. Question tidy narratives about past outcomes being obvious and inevitable from the beginning. Remembering past doubts and uncertainties more accurately can help you have more sympathy for others facing hard choices now.
Section: 6, Chapter: 10
Book: Stumbling on Happiness
Author: Daniel Gilbert
The Danger Of Resulting - Judging Decisions Solely By Results
A classic example of the danger of judging decisions solely by their results is the rise in obesity that accompanied the low-fat diet craze. Public health officials encouraged people to shun fatty foods and embrace carbs and sugars instead in the 1980s-90s. But obesity skyrocketed as a result.
However, in the moment, people eating "low-fat" but high-sugar snacks like SnackWells cookies likely attributed any weight gain to bad luck or other factors. It took a long time for the realization that judging food quality by fat content alone was flawed. This shows the peril of "resulting" - assuming the quality of a decision can be judged solely by its outcome.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Applying Selective Criteria Makes Execution Effortless
Essentialists apply a selective criteria when deciding what activities and commitments to take on. They evaluate opportunities carefully, saying no to the vast majority of options and only saying yes when something is truly essential and high impact. They are willing to turn down very good opportunities to wait for truly great ones. They ask "Will this activity or effort make the highest possible contribution toward my goal?" If they can't give a definitive yes, then they gracefully decline.
This selectivity allows them to channel their efforts into excelling in the vital few areas that matter most, making execution almost effortless. Nonessentialists, by contrast, take on too many things and spread themselves too thin, making execution a constant struggle.
Section: 2, Chapter: 9
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
Four Key Lessons From Construction On Making Checklists Actually Work
Gawande distills four key lessons about how to make checklists work in practice:
- Simple checks are essential, but often overlooked. It's easy to dismiss basic checks as being too "stupid" and "ineffective" to matter. But in complex environments, they are crucial to catching the obvious-but-essential things that are so frequently missed, leading to catastrophe.
- Checks must be explicit and mandatory, not vague advice. The construction manager's new checklist explicitly spelled out which teams had to talk, about what, and when. The steps were mandatory for all.
- Checks must generate buy-in and investment from the team, not just compliance. The construction manager achieved this by having the checklist system designed by the builders themselves, so they felt ownership over it.
- Checks must feel streamlined and pragmatic, not cumbersome. It was designed to fit efficiently into their existing workflows.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Profiting From A "No-Brainer"
"The collapse of the subprime mortgage market was a rare opportunity to make money from a 'no-brainer' bet. The hardest part was having the conviction to stick with the trade when everyone thought we were crazy." - Charlie Ledley
Section: 1, Chapter: 9
Book: The Big Short
Author: Michael Lewis
Believability Weight Your Decision Making
In an idea meritocracy, not all opinions are equal. Those with demonstrated expertise and capabilities in an area have "believability" and their views are weighted more heavily. Bridgewater has developed systems to track people's believability on various dimensions in order to facilitate idea-meritocratic decision making. When disagreements occur, believability-weighted voting is often used to resolve them, with the views of more believable parties counting more. Ultimately, this allows the best thinking to prevail.
Section: 3, Chapter: 5
Book: Principles
Author: Ray Dalio
Why Diverse Teams Beat Homogenous Ones
Wise groups express different properties than homogenous ones:
- They contain people with perspectives that challenge, augment, diverge and cross-pollinate, not parrot the same views
- Each person contributes useful but partial information from their region of the "problem space"
- Their collective intelligence emerges from the interaction of their diverse views In contrast, homogenous groups become echo chambers that reinforce shared assumptions. Even when composed of smart people, they collectively underperform.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Rebel Ideas
Author: Matthew Syed
"And Then What?" - Second-Order Thinking For Better Decisions
When evaluating possible solutions, it's critical to consider not just the immediate consequences, but the downstream impact of each choice. The author calls this second-order thinking, continuously asking "And then what?"
Explicitly mapping out these second and third-order effects yields a more complete picture of the outcomes of each option. First-order thinking is easy but shortsighted. Asking "And then what?" ensures you aren't winning a battle but losing the war.
Section: 4, Chapter: 2
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
How To Be A Little Less Certain
Manson offers some suggestions for becoming more skeptical and open-minded:
- Ask yourself "What if I'm wrong?" as often as possible. Consider alternate explanations.
- Seeing things from a different perspective takes practice. Notice when you feel threatened by new ideas.
- Argue for the other side, even if you disagree. This exercise weakens old beliefs.
- Think in terms of probabilities, not certainties. Very few things are 100% true or false.
Embracing uncertainty doesn't mean becoming totally relativistic or believing nothing. It means staying humble and curious, and being willing to update your views based on evidence. Responsible people can disagree.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck
Author: Mark Manson
Look-Then-Leap Vs. Threshold Rules
There are two main approaches to solving "optimal stopping" problems like hiring employees or buying a house:
- Look-Then-Leap Rule: Gather information for a set period of time, then commit to the next option that exceeds the best you've seen. This is the 37% Rule.
- Threshold Rule: If you have full prior information, simply set a predetermined threshold for quality and immediately take the first option that meets or exceeds it. No "look" phase needed.
The Threshold Rule only works if you have solid information on the distribution of options before you start looking. For example, if you know the distribution of typing speeds for secretaries, you can set a threshold and hire the first applicant who meets it. If you lack that information, the Look-Then-Leap approach is necessary to first establish a baseline.
In many real-world scenarios, from buying a house to choosing a spouse, we lack reliable priors. So some initial exploration, per the 37% Rule, is optimal before setting a threshold to leap for. The more uncertainty, the more exploration is needed before exploiting.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Optimism In The Face Of Uncertainty
A key insight from the multi-armed bandit problem is the power of "optimism in the face of uncertainty." That is, when choosing between options where some information is known and some unknown, optimism is the mathematically correct approach.
Suppose you walk into a casino and see two slot machines. The first, you're told, pays out 20% of the time. The second machine's payoff rate is unknown. Which should you choose?
Rationally, you should try the mystery machine. That's because it COULD pay out at >20%, in which case it's the better choice. But you'll only find out if you try it. Mathematically, the expected value of an unknown option is higher than a known suboptimal one.
So in life, when facing uncertainty, choose optimistically - assume the best of a new person, place, or experience. Optimism maximizes your chance of finding something great. Pessimism can lead to overlooking hidden gems.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Covid-19 Illustrates The High Costs Of Managing Uncertainty With Crude Rules
The authors use the example of blanket social distancing rules during the Covid-19 pandemic to illustrate the economic costs of managing uncertainty with rules rather than predictions.
- Social distancing was a crude but effective rule for limiting virus spread in the absence of information on who was infectious
- However, it came at an enormous economic and social cost, disrupting work, education, and social connectivity for everyone rather than just the infectious
- Better predictive tools for identifying infectious individuals, like rapid testing, could have enabled more normal life to continue safely for the majority. Realizing this would have required an "oiled" system able to flexibly adapt based on new information, rather than a "glued" system locked into rigid rules
Section: 3, Chapter: 7
Book: Power and Prediction
Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
The Prosecutor's Fallacy
The prosecutor's fallacy is a misapplication of conditional probability often seen in legal settings. It involves confusing the probability of evidence given innocence with the probability of innocence given evidence. For example, in the Collins case, prosecutors argued that the low probability of a couple matching the description of the perpetrators meant the defendants were likely guilty.
However, this ignores the base rate of innocent couples who might also match the description. This fallacy can lead to significant overestimation of guilt based on seemingly convincing statistical arguments.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: The Drunkard's Walk
Author: Leonard Mlodinow
Deciding How To Decide - Elevating Key Debates And Decisions
Not every decision needs to go through the full GSD wheel - that would take too long. As a leader, your job is to "decide how to decide" - identify decisions that need more discussion vs. those that should be made quickly by an individual. To do this:
- Push decisions into the facts wherever possible - empower those closest to the work to make the call
- For bigger, high-stakes decisions, pull the facts into the decision - make sure there is clarity on the situation before deciding
- Separate "debate" meetings from "decision" meetings to allow enough time for input without rushing to consensus
- Explicitly clarify who the "decider" is on key decisions - is it you? Someone else? A group vote? Empower others to decide while breaking ties yourself when needed.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Radical Candor
Author: Kim Malone Scott
The Planner and the Doer
Thaler proposes a "planner-doer" model to understand self-control problems:
- The "planner" is the far-sighted self that makes plans for the future and wants to make good long-term decisions
- The "doer" is the short-sighted self that acts in the moment and is susceptible to temptation
The planner has to anticipate the doer's weaknesses and set up commitments, rules, penalties or incentives to keep the doer on track. But the doer looks for loopholes in the heat of the moment. We are, in effect, in constant negotiation with ourselves.
Section: 3, Chapter: 12
Book: Misbehaving
Author: Richard Thaler
Reflect On Your Decision Process, Not Just The Outcome
After making an important decision, it's tempting to judge the quality of your choice solely based on the results. Parrish argues this is a mistake. Outcomes are influenced by a multitude of factors, many outside your control. Judging solely on results without examining the process that led to the decision leaves you vulnerable to being fooled by randomness.
A good process raises the odds of success over time, even if it sometimes results in a subpar outcome. Focusing on the quality of your thinking rather than the variance in results builds decision making muscle in the long run.
Section: 4, Chapter: 6
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
Fielding Outcomes - Separating Luck And Skill
Chapter 3 focuses on how to learn productively from outcomes. Duke argues we must get better at "fielding" outcomes - determining whether they were due to the quality of our decisions (skill) or factors beyond our control (luck).
Poker players know that even good decisions can lead to bad outcomes and vice versa due to luck. The challenge is that it's hard to tease apart the contributions of luck vs. skill. But if we attribute bad outcomes solely to luck, we miss opportunities to improve our choices. If we chalk up good outcomes solely to skill, we may wrongly reinforce bad habits.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Uncertainty Can Be Hidden By Rules And Expensive Accommodations
The authors use the example of modern airport design to illustrate the concept of "hidden uncertainty." Frequent air travelers arrive at the airport much earlier than their flights to accommodate the uncertainty around traffic, parking, security lines, flight delays, etc. Airports like Incheon Airport in South Korea now provide extensive amenities like spas, museums, gardens, and ice skating to make the inevitably long wait times more palatable.
However, this expensive infrastructure accommodates the hidden uncertainty rather than resolving it. The authors suggest that AI prediction could reduce the uncertainty and enable a new, more efficient equilibrium.
Section: 2, Chapter: 5
Book: Power and Prediction
Author: Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb
Process Over Outcomes: Judge Decisions By What's Rational Ex-Ante
It's easy to criticize a decision that worked out badly ex-post. But this can be misleading. Maybe it was a good decision that just had an unlucky outcome. You wouldn't fault a poker player who made a smart strategic bet that happened to lose.
Instead, evaluate decisions based on the quality of the process and the information available ex-ante: A good process will have more good outcomes than bad ones over time. But there will always be some random variation in the short term. Don't let it distract you.
Reward good decisions, even if they sometimes have bad outcomes due to chance. Otherwise, you'll fall prey to outcome bias and end up encouraging reckless risks that just happen to pay off. In the long run, process dominates outcome.
Section: 6, Chapter: 29
Book: Misbehaving
Author: Richard Thaler
Self-Control Allows You To Choose Reason Over Impulse
Self-control is the ability to put space between an emotional trigger and your reaction. It's pausing to allow your rational mind to catch up when a feeling provokes you to act impulsively.
People with poor self-control are at the mercy of their emotions, blown about by anger, desire, fear, etc. Those with self-control can experience those same feelings without being controlled by them. They have the discipline to keep their eyes on their long-term goals even when momentary urges threaten to derail them.
Self-control often comes down to choosing between what you want now and what you want overall. Resisting temptation in the moment is what enables you to shape your life intentionally.
Section: 2, Chapter: 3
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
The Problem Of Extreme Complexity In Modern Medicine
In the introduction and first chapter, Gawande outlines the immense complexity that has arisen in medicine and other professional fields in recent decades. With the explosion of knowledge and technology, even routine procedures like surgery now involve coordinating hundreds of critical steps between multiple team members. This complexity exceeds the ability of even the most skilled individuals to get everything right consistently. Gawande states "the volume and complexity of what we know has exceeded our individual ability to deliver its benefits correctly, safely, or reliably. Knowledge has both saved us and burdened us."
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Pareto Principle And The Vital Few
The Pareto Principle states that 80% of results come from 20% of efforts. A few key activities contribute most of the value in any given situation:
- In business, 80% of profits come from 20% of customers
- In society, 20% of criminals commit 80% of crimes
- In personal lives, 20% of activities produce 80% of satisfaction
Essentialists invest their time and energy only in the vital few choices and activities that matter most, with the understanding that most things are unimportant distractions.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
Backcasting - Imagining Success, Then Tracing The Path
The flipside of a premortem is "backcasting" - envisioning a successful outcome, then reverse-engineering how you got there. If your company wants to double its market share, imagine it's five years from now and that's been accomplished. What key decisions and milestones led to that rosy future?
Telling the story of success makes it feel more tangible. It also helps identify must-have elements that might otherwise be overlooked. Backcasting is a great technique for setting and pressure-testing goals. Use it for anything from launching products to planning vacations.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
How Checklists Empower Heroes In The Modern Era
"What is needed, however, isn't just that people working together be nice to each other. It is discipline. Discipline is hard—harder than trustworthiness and skill and perhaps even than selflessness. We are by nature flawed and inconstant creatures. We can't even keep from snacking between meals. We are not built for discipline. We are built for novelty and excitement, not for careful attention to detail. Discipline is something we have to work at."
Section: 1, Chapter: 8
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
The Power of Decisive Action
Hill emphasizes that decision-making is crucial for success. He argues that lack of decision is a major cause of failure, citing that successful people make decisions quickly and change them slowly, if at all. Hill illustrates this with examples like Henry Ford's persistence with the Model T. He advises developing the habit of reaching decisions promptly and changing these decisions slowly.
Section: 1, Chapter: 8
Book: Think and Grow Rich
Author: Napoleon Hill
The Biology of Forgiveness
Dawkins explores the evolutionary basis of forgiveness using the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma model. He explains that while retaliation against cheaters is important, the ability to forgive and return to cooperation is equally crucial.
The chapter examines strategies like "Tit for Two Tats," which only retaliates after two consecutive defections, showing how increased forgiveness can sometimes be advantageous. This framework helps explain why forgiveness and reconciliation are common in nature, despite the apparent advantages of holding grudges.
Section: 1, Chapter: 12
Book: The Selfish Gene
Author: Richard Dawkins
Trade-offs Make Strategy Possible
Southwest Airlines succeeded by choosing a focused strategy of being THE low-cost airline. They made deliberate trade-offs like not serving meals or having premium seating. When competitors like Continental Lite tried to copy their model without fully committing to those trade-offs, they failed.
In both business strategy and life, ignoring the reality of trade-offs trying to "have it all" leads to underperforming across the board. Essentialists make strategic trade-offs deliberately. They ask "Which problem do I want to solve?" not "How can I do it all?". They choose carefully what not to do in order to invest more in what is really vital.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
The Partiality of Court Judges
Gladwell cites a striking study by economist Sendhil Mullainathan comparing the bail decisions made by experienced judges to a basic computer algorithm. The algorithm only considered the defendant's age and criminal record, while the judges met the defendants face-to-face and could evaluate their character and credibility. Yet the algorithm dramatically outperformed the judges:
"The people on the computer's list were 25 percent less likely to commit a crime while awaiting trial than the 400,000 people released by the judges of New York City. 25 percent! In the bake-off, machine destroyed man."
With just a fraction of the information available to judges, the simple algorithm made far more accurate judgments about which defendants could be safely released. The study highlights the limits of relying on intuitive character judgments from in-person interactions.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Talking to Strangers
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Intellectual Humility In The Cockpit
In the 1970s, a series of high-profile plane crashes revealed a disturbing pattern - in many cases, the crash was caused not by mechanical failure or bad weather, but by human error and dysfunction in the cockpit. To address this issue, the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) developed a new training protocol called CRM (Crew Resource Management). CRM was designed to break down the communication barriers between pilots and crew:
- Captains were taught to proactively invite input and feedback from their crew, especially in high-stress situations. They practiced using inclusive language like "What do you think?".
- Crews were given explicit permission to challenge the captain's decisions if they had safety concerns. They practiced using assertive language like "I'm not comfortable with that" and "I suggest we consider another option."
- Debriefs focused not just on technical skills but on communication and decision-making processes. Crews were rewarded for admitting mistakes and identifying areas for improvement.
CRM represented a radical shift in mindset for an industry built on strict obedience to authority. It wasn't easy or comfortable for pilots and crews to adopt, but the airline industry's safety record has improved dramatically, with human error accounting for a much smaller share of accidents and incidents.
Section: 2, Chapter: 10
Book: The Culture Code
Author: Daniel Coyle
The Illusion of Precision in Measurements
Measurements, whether in science, business, or everyday life, often carry an illusion of precision that belies their inherent uncertainty. The chapter discusses how even seemingly precise measurements, like SAT scores or unemployment rates, have significant margins of error. For instance, a student's SAT score can vary by dozens of points if they retake the test, not due to changes in ability but due to random factors.
Similarly, small changes in unemployment rates often reported as significant may be within the margin of error. This illusion of precision can lead to misinterpretation of data and poor decision-making. Recognizing the inherent variability in measurements is crucial for making more accurate assessments and avoiding overconfidence in data interpretation.
Section: 1, Chapter: 7
Book: The Drunkard's Walk
Author: Leonard Mlodinow
The Importance of Framing in Public Policy
The principles of framing and mental accounting have significant implications for public policy:
Choice architecture: Policymakers can design choices in a way that nudges people towards decisions that serve their own long-term interests, without restricting freedom of choice.
Disclosure policies: Information about risks and benefits should be presented in a clear, simple, and understandable format to help people make informed decisions.
Regulation of marketing practices: Firms should be discouraged from using manipulative framing tactics to exploit consumers' biases and vulnerabilities.
Section: 4, Chapter: 34
Book: Thinking, Fast and Slow
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Think Broadly To Optimize Risk-Taking
To optimize your risk taking:
Section: 5, Chapter: 20
Book: Misbehaving
Author: Richard Thaler
In VUCA Environments, Make Decisions at the Point of Information
In volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments, centralized decision-making is too slow and uninformed to keep up. Instead, organizations must push decision rights out to the edges, where people have the most timely and relevant knowledge. This requires:
- Broad data transparency so frontline teams have necessary context
- Strong lateral connections for collaboration and information flow
- Training and trust so junior personnel are equipped to decide and act
- Cultural comfort with decisions being made below senior levels
- Senior leader focus on the "what" and "why," not dictating the "how"
Decentralized authority doesn't mean chaos - it means flexible unity of effort guided by commander's intent.
Section: 1, Chapter: 8
Book: Team of Teams
Author: Stanley McChrystal
The No-Win And No-Lose Decision Models
Jeffers contrasts two models for decision-making:
- The No-Win Model: You agonize over the decision, try to control the outcome, and second-guess yourself afterward. Any obstacles or challenges are seen as proof that you made the "wrong" choice.
- The No-Lose Model: You see each choice as an opportunity for growth and learning. You trust that whatever path you choose, you will gain valuable experiences and insights. Challenges are embraced as part of the journey. By adopting the No-Lose Model, you free yourself from the fear of making a mistake and open yourself up to life's adventures.
Section: 1, Chapter: 7
Book: Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway
Author: Susan Jeffers
Become A Satisficer With The Secretary Problem
The famous "Secretary Problem" provides a framework to make good choices with limited information. Adapted for dating, it works like this:
- Estimate how long you expect to be actively dating and divide it by 2.718 (Euler's mathematical constant) to get your "exploration period."
- During this period, don't commit to anyone but treat it as an experiment to establish your tastes and standards. Gather data on what you like.
- After the exploration period, use your historical data to determine your "aspiration level" in a partner based on the best relationships you've had.
- Moving forward, commit to the first person who exceeds your aspiration level. Don't wonder "what if" about other options.
For example, if you expect to date from age 20 to 35, your exploration period is 5.5 years (15 divided by 2.718). So from 20-26 you gain experience and then from 26-35 you pursue commitment.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: How to Not Die Alone
Author: Logan Ury
Mental Time Travel Aids Decision Making
A core theme of Chapters 5-6 is that mentally simulating the future and past leads to better choices. Vividly imagining various futures (through backcasting and premortems) helps us select the most promising one to aim for. It also allows us to anticipate and preempt obstacles. Reflecting on past similar situations provides context on whether a proposed course of action is wise.
The more we build mental muscles to escape the here-and-now and adopt a long-term perspective, the better our judgment will be. Groups and habits that promote this kind of mental time travel are invaluable.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Life Is Poker, Not Chess
In Chapter 1, Annie Duke argues that life is more like poker than chess. Chess contains no hidden information and little luck, so the better player almost always wins. But in poker and in life, there are unknown variables and luck involved. Even the best decision doesn't always lead to a good outcome, and a bad decision can sometimes work out due to luck. Duke uses examples like Pete Carroll's famous goal-line call in the Super Bowl and how the same play call would have been deemed brilliant rather than idiotic if it had worked.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
The Power Of 100% Commitment And Acting "As If"
To fully engage with each area of your Whole Life Grid, Jeffers recommends two powerful practices:
- Make a 100% commitment to each area of focus, giving it your full attention and effort when you're engaged with it.
- Act "as if" you really count and your presence makes a difference.
This shift in mindset energizes you and attracts more positive experiences. By applying these practices consistently, you build a sense of purpose and fulfillment in all areas of your life.
Section: 1, Chapter: 8
Book: Feel The Fear And Do It Anyway
Author: Susan Jeffers
We Form Abstract Beliefs In A Flawed Way
Duke cites research showing that we form abstract beliefs in a backwards way - we hear something, assume it's true, and only sometimes get around to vetting it later, if at all.
Experiments found that even when questionable information was clearly labeled as false, people still tended to process it as true, especially when under time pressure. Our brains evolved to assume things we hear are true because doubting everything would be cognitively inefficient. But this means many of our beliefs about the world are not properly vetted. Even when presented with contradictory evidence, we often still cling to existing beliefs.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Intensive Care Medicine Demonstrates The Staggering Complexity Clinicians Face
Gawande uses intensive care medicine as a prime example of the staggering complexity modern medical professionals must handle. In the US, over 5 million patients are admitted to ICUs each year. For a single patient:
- An average of 178 individual actions are required per day, from administering drugs to suctioning breathing tubes to calibrating machines.
- Doctors must diagnose and treat an endless variety of life-threatening issues across every organ system.
- A single misstep can cascade into disaster. One study found that even in the best ICUs, the average patient experiences almost two errors in care per day.
The complexity strains clinicians to the limits of human ability. 50% of ICU patients end up experiencing a serious complication, and each one decreases the odds of survival sharply. To maintain consistent success, we need systems that enhance expert clinicians' abilities.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
The Danger of Information Overload
Gladwell draws important lessons from the Millennium Challenge '02 exercise about the dangers of information overload and over-analysis. He argues that in many situations, having more information doesn't necessarily lead to better decisions.
- Recognize when you have enough information to make a decision
- Avoid analysis paralysis by setting time limits on deliberation
- Trust in expertise and intuition, especially in time-sensitive situations
- Create systems that filter information to focus on what's most important
- Practice making decisions with limited information to improve your rapid cognition skills
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Create Tripwires To Avoid Sunk Cost Fallacy
One of the biggest pitfalls after committing to a decision is falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy - continuing to invest in a losing course of action because you've already poured resources into it.
To guard against this, the author recommends setting clear tripwires in advance - predetermined thresholds that trigger a change of course. Some examples:
- We will shut down this project if we don't hit X metric by Y date.
- I will sell this stock if it drops below $Z per share.
The key is establishing these criteria when you have a clear head, not in the heat of the moment. Tripwires help override our natural aversion to admitting failure and cutting our losses.
Section: 4, Chapter: 5
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
You Don't Need to Know Everything
"What the cognitively busy, logically trained Blue Team commanders saw as a complex and difficult problem, the Red Team commanders saw as something so simple that it could be solved with a single leap of intuition."
This quote encapsulates a key theme of the chapter: sometimes, simplicity and intuition can triumph over complexity and extensive analysis. Gladwell uses this to argue that effective decision-making often involves knowing what information to ignore, rather than trying to process everything available.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Blink
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Visualizing The Skill-Luck Continuum
The luck-skill continuum is a powerful conceptual model for understanding the relative contribution of luck and skill in different domains. The key features of the continuum are:
- The extreme left represents pure luck (e.g. roulette) and the extreme right represents pure skill (e.g. chess)
- Most activities fall somewhere between these extremes, combining both luck and skill
- As you move from right to left, luck plays an increasingly important role and larger sample sizes are needed to detect skill
- Reversion to the mean is stronger on the left (luck) side of the continuum
- Differences in skill are easier to observe on the right side of the continuum
The continuum is useful for setting expectations and making better decisions. If you know where an activity lies on the continuum, you can better interpret past results and anticipate future outcomes.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: The Success Equation
Author: Michael Mauboussin
Make Your Decisions As Expected Value Calculations
One of the most powerful lessons in Life Principles is Dalio's framework for making decisions. He advises thinking of every decision like an expected value calculation:
"Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong."
Whenever you're facing a decision, estimate the probability that you are right and the reward that you'll gain if you are. Then estimate the probability you are wrong and the cost you'll incur if you are. Multiply each probability by its reward or penalty, and add up the results to get an expected value. If the expected value is positive, make the decision. If it's not, don't. This takes emotion out of the process and provides a systematic way to make rational choices.
Section: 2, Chapter: 5
Book: Principles
Author: Ray Dalio
If It's Not A Clear Yes, It's A Clear No
"The way of the Essentialist is the path of the disciplined pursuit of less. It is not a path for people who aspire to the middle. It is a path for those who put their best effort toward fewer but better things. When faced with a decision between two opportunities, the Essentialist asks, "Which one of these is essential to me?" If one is a 9/10 and the other is a 10/10, the Essentialist knows to go for the 10. The logic is simple: if you rated an option anything less than a 9 out of 10, then it is a no. It is not something you are going to pour your energy into."
Section: 2, Chapter: 9
Book: Essentialism
Author: Greg McKeown
Holding Firm Against A Chorus Of Doubters
By mid-2007, Burry and Eisman faced intense pushback as subprime cracks emerged:
- Burry's investors revolted when his fund showed losses, wanted out
- Eisman's colleagues thought he was crazy for predicting a housing crash
- Both men had to endure a firestorm of criticism for sticking to their guns
Lesson: Contrarian ideas are never popular in the moment. If you have conviction in your analysis, you need the mental toughness to hold firm when everyone says you're wrong. Stick to your guns if the facts are on your side.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: The Big Short
Author: Michael Lewis
Controlling The Urgency Instinct To Make Better Decisions
To resist the urgency instinct and make more rational choices:
- Take a breath. When your heart starts racing, stop and think before acting. Very few things are literally now-or-never emergencies.
- Insist on data. If something is truly important and urgent, demand the data to verify it. Is it really increasing/decreasing dramatically? What specifically do the numbers show?
- Beware of fortune-tellers and "now or never" claims. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Insist on a range of scenarios, not just the best or worst case.
- Be wary of drastic action. What are the side effects and unintended consequences? How has the idea been tested? Small, step-by-step changes are usually more effective than dramatic gestures.
Section: 1, Chapter: 10
Book: Factfulness
Author: Hans Rosling
Using Premortems To Stress-Test Plans
One way to harness the power of dissent is to conduct a "premortem" on important decisions. A premortem involves imagining a future where your plan failed, then working backwards to figure out why.
Have the team brainstorm as many paths to failure as possible - imagine competitors' responses, think through operational snafus, consider external risks. Then update your plan to mitigate the identified issues. This "creative dissent" makes the final plan much more robust. Premortems give permission to express doubts in a productive way.
Section: 1, Chapter: 6
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Three Elements Necessary To Handle Extreme Complexity Successfully
Gawande proposes three common elements are required to handle extreme complexity:
- Acceptance of our inadequacy. We must recognize that our memory, knowledge and skills are inherently inadequate in the face of the immense complexity of modern systems. We need tools and processes to support and enhance our abilities.
- Belief in the possibility of finding a solution. When failure is common in complex systems, it's easy to become resigned and fatalistic. Success requires maintaining the conviction that solutions can be found despite the complexity, if we are disciplined enough.
- Discipline to apply systematic approaches, even when they seem simplistic. Applying a simple checklist to an immensely complex problem can seem silly, irrational, and a waste of time. But in complex systems, disciplined use of even simple tools is essential and cannot be skipped, even by experts. Consistent success depends on it.
Section: 1, Chapter: 1
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Fake News In The Post-Truth Era
The idea that we live in a "post-truth" era, where facts matter less than emotions and personal beliefs, has become a major concern. With the rise of social media and AI-driven content curation, it's easier than ever to spread disinformation and propaganda. Partisans on all sides are increasingly tempted to embrace falsehoods that support their side, rejecting inconvenient truths.
To be responsible citizens and voters, we must make a good faith effort to pursue truth. Key principles:
- Consciously choose reliable and fact-based media sources, not just ones that confirm your biases
- Support quality investigative journalism with paid subscriptions or donations
- Practice intellectual humility and be willing to change your mind in light of strong evidence
Section: 4, Chapter: 17
Book: 21 Lessons for the 21st Century
Author: Yuval Noah Harari
Mere Ownership Makes Us Overvalue Items
Be aware that your tendency to overvalue what you already own can lead to poor decisions, such as:
- Holding on to losing investments rather than cutting your losses
- Refusing to part with items you no longer need
- Overpricing items you're trying to sell
- Turning down good deals because you're anchored to a higher price you previously paid
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Misbehaving
Author: Richard Thaler
A Fool in the Right Places
Since epistemological certainty is impossible, we must learn to act decisively in the face of an uncertain future. Taleb suggests adopting a barbell strategy for prediction:
- Make very few, if any, truly life-altering predictions (career path, spouse, etc.)
- For matters of minor impact, feel free to guess and predict away! The idea is to stake significant actions only on things you are extremely confident about, but to embrace frequent, small errors when the cost is limited. "Do not be ashamed of that. Do not try to always withhold judgment—opinions are the stuff of life. Do not try to avoid predicting—yes, after this diatribe about prediction I am not urging you to stop being a fool. Just be a fool in the right places."
Section: 2, Chapter: 12
Book: The Black Swan
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Apply Your Criteria Consistently To Make The Best Choice
With potential solutions generated, it's time to evaluate the options and choose the best one. This is where clear criteria become essential. You must know what factors are most important and how to weigh tradeoffs between them.
The author emphasizes that good criteria are:
- Unambiguous - Anyone applying the criteria would make a similar assessment
- Outcome-oriented - Criteria should guide you towards what matters most, not just what's easy to measure
- Complete - Criteria must be comprehensive enough to yield a clear winner, not a tie between options
Section: 4, Chapter: 3
Book: Clear Thinking
Author: Shane Parrish
When To Give Up On A Restaurant, Job Or Relationship
The explore/exploit tradeoff, also known as the multi-armed bandit problem, offers guidance on when to stop exploring new options and commit to the best known one. The optimal approach depends on the total length of time you'll be making decisions:
- Short time horizon (e.g. choosing where to eat on your last night of vacation): Exploit immediately by picking the best place you've been to already. Don't risk a bad meal to explore.
- Medium time horizon (e.g. choosing lunch spots in the few months before moving to a new city): Mix it up between exploiting old favorites and exploring to find new ones. Lean more toward exploring early on.
- Long time horizon (e.g. choosing jobs or relationships when young): Explore a lot, try new things constantly, don't settle down too soon. With decades of decisions ahead, finding a great option is worth many misses.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Algorithms to Live By
Author: Brian Christian
Reward Sensitivity Explains Extroverted Risk-Taking
Extroverts are more likely than introverts to be reward-sensitive: they feel driven to pursue positive emotional experiences and social attention. This tendency is likely mediated by differences related to the neurotransmitter dopamine. Researchers believe extroverts either have more dopamine available or are more sensitive to its effects, which may explain why they are prone to seeking out more stimulation.
In many ways reward sensitivity is positive - it gives extroverts their energy, drive, and sociability. But it can also lead to trouble. Compared to introverts, extroverts are more likely to:
- Engage in risky behavior like gambling, unsafe sex, and breaking rules
- Ignore warning signals and plow ahead with bad plans
- Make impulsive decisions without considering long-term consequences
- Demonstrate overconfidence unmatched by actual ability
- Become easily bored and seek new thrills
Section: 2, Chapter: 7
Book: Quiet
Author: Susan Cain
Doctors Need Decision Assistance Too
Even highly-educated experts like doctors aren't immune to decision-making biases. When a patient presents with a cough, the doctor has to decide if it's due to a virus, allergies, acid reflux, cancer or other causes. Leaping to conclusions based on initial impressions leads to a lot of misdiagnoses.
That's why many medical facilities use checklists, group consultations and decision aids to debias doctors. The Kaiser health system reduced the number of patients on strong opioids by 60% by having another doctor review any long-term painkiller prescription. The outside perspective combatted the prescribing doctor's faulty pattern-matching.
Section: 1, Chapter: 4
Book: Thinking in Bets
Author: Annie Duke
Fooled By Expertise
Experts can be valuable sources of information, but they are not always right. In fact, the more specialized an expert becomes, the more likely they are to develop tunnel vision and to miss important information that falls outside their area of expertise. This is why it is important to be aware of the limitations of expertise and to seek out diverse perspectives.
Section: 1, Chapter: 10
Book: Range
Author: David Epstein
The Monet Effect
“I call this error in judgment the Monet Effect. When we have only a rough perception of someone, our brain, hoping for a great outcome, fills in all the gaps optimistically. People seem way more desirable than they actually are. It’s only later, when they transform into real people standing in front of us, that we see the flaws.”
Section: 2, Chapter: 8
Book: How to Not Die Alone
Author: Logan Ury
Thriving in a "VUCA" World Requires New Mental Models
The challenges the Task Force faced in Iraq are a microcosm of the Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) world facing many organizations today. To thrive in this environment requires new ways of thinking and operating:
- From predictive planning to rapid adaptation and experimentation
- From siloed execution to transparent collaboration across boundaries
- From centralized control to decentralized initiative within a common framework
- From brittle efficiency to resilient networks able to respond to change
- From leaders with all the answers to leaders who empower others to find answers
While uncomfortable, these new mental models are essential for organizations to make the leap from 20th century bureaucracy to 21st century adaptability.
Section: 1, Chapter: 12
Book: Team of Teams
Author: Stanley McChrystal
The World War 2 B-17 Bomber's Checklist Demonstrated The Power Of Simplicity
Gawande traces the origin of checklists in aviation to the iconic B-17 bomber of World War 2. The B-17 was the most complex and sophisticated plane ever built at the time, but this complexity proved overwhelming.
Instead of scrapping the design, pilots implemented a simple approach - a short checklist of step-by-step critical tasks for takeoff, flight, landing and taxiing. With checklists in hand, pilots went on to fly 1.8 million miles without a serious mishap, a stunning turnaround for such a complex machine.
The checklists ensured pilots didn't miss any crucial steps amid the B-17's complexity. This story demonstrates the power of using disciplined, systematic tools to enhance individual ability and achieve consistent success in complex situations.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Checklists Are Powerful Tools, But Not Foolproof Panaceas
While a strong proponent of checklists, Gawande offers some important caveats:
- Checklists are not cure-alls. They don't supplant the need for skill, judgment, and teamwork. Rather, they enhance those abilities by ensuring teams get the basics right.
- Checklists must be well-designed to be effective. Good checklists are precise, efficient, and easy-to-use.
- Checklists require cultural change to work. Teams must be committed to using them consistently and correctly.
- Simply mandating checklists is not enough - they must be built into the team's culture.
Section: 1, Chapter: 9
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
The Two Types Of Checklists That Help Manage Complexity
Gawande outlines two types of checklists construction teams use to achieve consistent success with complex projects:
- Task checklists that define the minimum necessary steps in a process. They ensure critical tasks are not overlooked or skipped. For example, a checklist that reminds builders to confirm the dimensions of a roof truss before installation, or to test the concrete mix for proper consistency.
- Communication checklists that specify which teams must talk to each other to identify and deal with developing problems. For example, a checklist that requires engineers, architects, and builders to discuss any deviations from the blueprint before implementing them, to ensure they are viable. Communication checklists prompt the collaboration needed to catch errors and handle the unforeseen problems.
Section: 1, Chapter: 3
Book: The Checklist Manifesto
Author: Atul Gawande
Vanity Metrics vs Actionable Metrics
Vanity metrics are dangerous because they give a rosy picture of the business, even if no real progress is being made. Examples include total registered users, raw pageviews, and number of downloads. These metrics tend to go "up and to the right" regardless of the actual business performance.
Actionable metrics, on the other hand, clearly demonstrate cause and effect. They focus on the parts of the product customers interact with and tie them to business results. If a change is made to the product, an actionable metric will immediately reflect any positive or negative impact. Actionable metrics are the foundation for learning what's working and what's not.
Section: 2, Chapter: 7
Book: The Lean Startup
Author: Eric Ries
Existential Overwhelm: The Burden of Infinite Possibilities
The modern world presents us with an overwhelming array of options and experiences, leading to a sense of "existential overwhelm." This feeling arises from the gap between the limited time we have and the seemingly infinite possibilities available. Social media further exacerbates this by constantly exposing us to new desires and experiences.
Section: 1, Chapter: 2
Book: Four Thousand Weeks
Author: Oliver Burkeman
Books about Decision Making
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Leadership
Superforecasting Book Summary
Philip Tetlock
In Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner reveal the techniques used by elite forecasters to predict future events with remarkable accuracy, and show how these skills can be cultivated by anyone to make better decisions in an uncertain world.
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Sports
Management
Psychology
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The Success Equation Book Summary
Michael Mauboussin
The Success Equation is a comprehensive guide to understanding the relative roles of skill and luck in shaping outcomes, offering practical insights and tools for improving decision-making, performance, and predictions in a wide range of domains, from sports and business to education and investing.
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Personal Development
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Psychology
Thinking in Bets Book Summary
Annie Duke
In "Thinking in Bets," Annie Duke draws on her experience as a professional poker player to share strategies for making sound decisions under uncertainty, such as thinking probabilistically, learning from outcomes, surrounding yourself with truthseeking groups, and using mental time travel to pressure-test beliefs and plans.
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The Signal and the Noise Book Summary
Nate Silver
In The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver explores the art and science of prediction, explaining what separates good forecasters from bad ones and how we can all improve our understanding of an uncertain world.
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Computer Science
Decision Making
Algorithms To Live By Book Summary
Brian Christian
Algorithms to Live By reveals how computer algorithms can solve many of life's most vexing human problems, from finding a spouse to folding laundry, by providing a blueprint for optimizing everyday decisions through the lens of computer science.
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